What if China Declines?

When China started publishing economic figures in the early- and mid-1990s, the statistics were astounding. Peter Nolan, an economic analyst, wrote that by 2001, the total amount of foreign investment into China was USD $150 billion higher than the amount invested into the entirety of Latin America and the Caribbean combined. It’s no wonder the Chinese Communist Party doesn’t have many internal threats: the GDP per capita in China: in one generation, the average GDP per capita has gone up by almost 18,000% from USD $162 to USD $12,600.

Today’s picture in 2024 is still extremely impressive, with a projected economic growth of 5% (a higher projection than any country in Europe in 2024). And that’s considered to be a slowed down growth rate by Chinese standards - In 2007, it was reportedly as high as 14%. But the world’s second largest economy is beginning to face two issues. I already mentioned the economy slowing down: the other issue is aging demographics which, to be fair, is also happening throughout the developed world.

So what happens if China finds itself in an increasingly disadvantageous position? Only time will tell, but probably one of two, diametrically opposed, things:

Peaceful Withdrawal

The Altynkol rail hub in Kazakhstan was built with Chinese money as part of the Belt and Road. Source: CGTN

Right now, China sends an astonishing amount of money overseas. In one decade since its launch, the country’s foreign investment Belt and Road Initiative has sent over USD $1 trillion abroad. These infrastructure projects exist in every continent, ranging from Latin America, to Europe, to Africa, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia. Chinese state media announced in 2023 that there were nearly 500 Confucius Institute offices in 160 countries promoting Chinese cultural and language exchange, including in the United States. The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) organisation has greatly appealed to the Global South, and organisations like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) rival that of its counterpart, the US-led IMF.

But all of these projects cost money - and if the money dries up, their survival is put in serious jeopardy.

China routinely talks about the noble goal of “peaceful coexistence”. Considering the country has not been in a conflict since the late 1970s, it’s definitely something that Beijing appears to sincerely strive for. Thus, it’s entirely possible to believe that this will continue to be true if China is not able to fully overcome its current challenges. The greater global community might struggle - BRICS could lose a keystone founding member, dozens of countries could lose access to vital investment, and world economies may react negatively - but all of it would be better than a non-peaceful outcome. There may still be some assertiveness in Asia-Pacific, particularly in areas like the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, but the threat of Sino-US conflict would subside.

Violent Distraction

A political cartoon depicts China’s extensive claims in the South China Sea. Source: Paresh Nath

Sometimes, in order to draw attention away from domestic strife, autocratic countries will lash out against their neighbours. A prime example of this occurred in 1982 when Argentina’s junta invaded the Falkland Islands to distract the population away from a poor economic standing and reignite nationalist sentiment amid general civil unrest.

In the West, fears simmer that China could do the same.

It’s impossible to predict where, but we can certainly narrow it down - the two most likely candidates are the South China Sea, and Taiwan Strait. Neither of these should be much of a surprise: the news frequently reports on incidents surrounding both. Considering the astonishing amount of trade and financial flows that come from East Asia, the outcome of either one would be disastrous - especially when compounded with the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Another possible contender would be somewhere along the Belt and Road Initiative, where critical resources are under threat by local conflicts. This could include oil pipelines in Pakistan or Myanmar, or infrastructure investments throughout the Sahel via China’s naval base in Djibouti.

It might not even be direct - it could mean seeking to secure its position via proxy - such as increasing support for Russia in Ukraine, North Korea along the 38th Parallel, or the junta in Myanmar - to guarantee a stance of favourable security.

Whatever happens (assuming anything happens), we should hope for the best, but prepare for the worst by watching, waiting, and adapting to it before it happens. The world should seek the softest possible landing - and probably hope that China doesn’t decline at all.

TAI Score: Degree 4. While there’s no guarantee that China will decline - nor are there signs of it happening anytime soon - even the best case scenario could result in developmental downturn in the Global South, which may lead to a rise in instability and conflict in a much more difficult-to-contain landscape.

Most Modern Politicians are Maniacs

This article is not an endorsement or criticism of any politician, or their actions, anywhere. Rather, this article is meant to provide a bit of perspective.

It’s probably safe to assume that by the time you read this, you’re aware of the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election. Against almost all conceivable odds, Donald Trump will be returning to the White House in 2025. It’s probably also safe to assume that you’re aware he’s far from being a conventional president, not least of all because he completely lacked a career in politics before his first term began in 2017.

However, populist presidents around the world, also in some rather major countries, have done some spectacularly evil things that Trump never even attempted. Below is a showcasing of how, and why, most modern politicians around the world are more than a bit crazy.

Prabowo Subianto

Prabowo Subianto of Indonesia. Source: Ministry of State Secretariat

Indonesia’s eighth president was inaugurated on the 20th of October in a lavish display in front of a palace in Jakarta. As a frontrunner in his election campaign from February 2024, Subianto enjoyed the endorsement of then-president Joko Widodo, whose son is serving as vice president under Subianto in a move that has certainly raised more than a few eyebrows.

What’s closer to the centre of the spotlight, however, are Subianto’s alleged war crimes, which include the abduction and torture of democracy activists in the 1990s (13 remain missing), as well as the committing of “atrocities” against separatist forces in East Timor and West Papua. The lack of proper education over the challenging years prior to 1994 in Indonesia, however, signify that many young people are either not aware of, or uninterested in, Subianto’s violent past.

Jair Bolsonaro

The former president of Brazil is probably the most directly comparable to Donald Trump. Bolsonaro’s authoritarian approach to the COVID-19 pandemic illustrated his desire to be a dictator in the midst of crisis. This included the outright objection to the use of WHO-approved vaccines, instead preferring questionable cures with minimal (if any) scientific backing, became most noticeable when Bolsonaro rejected US-manufactured vaccines for over seven months while a far less effective and more expensive vaccine produced by a contact of Bolsonaro’s was quickly cleared for approval.

Bolsonaro’s devastation of the Amazon rainforest is equally well-documented. At a UN conference in New York, he pushed back against the idea that the rainforest was a “heritage of humanity”, instead declaring that they belonged to the Brazilian people, allowing him to turn a blind eye while loggers and large-scale livestock ranchers cut down the forest for economic gain.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey. Source: Reuters

Few groups are free from persecution in Erdogan’s Turkey. Since he took office 18 years ago, ethnic Kurds, women, LGBT people, and democratic institutions have all fallen within his crosshairs. In 2019 alone, more than 36,000 people faced criminal investigations for criticising Erdogan online, with nearly 9600 being sent to prison for doing so.

Corruption in Turkey under Erdogan has also found a somewhat unexpected home: New York. Numerous contributions to city and state politicians have been traced back to groups associated with Erdogan, including more than $40,000 from just 16 people donated to a single politician from New York in the US House of Representatives. The mayor of New York City has also been indicted over allegations of accepting bribes from Turkish officials.

Rodrigo Duterte

Arguably the most outrageous character on this list, Duterte is notorious from his time as mayor of Davao and president of The Philippines. The former president became infamous from his “war on drugs” in the Philippines, which authorised vigilante groups and security forces to kill suspected drug users and dealers on sight - a widely alleged crime against humanity. Many of the police officers responsible for these killings - approximately 30,000 of which took place to date - further admitted to falsifying data to justify murders.

In fact, in October 2024, Duterte admitted to personally maintaining death squads while mayor of Davao to track down and kill drug users and dealers. These groups, consisting largely of local gangsters and crooked police officers, were encouraged by Duterte to provoke targets into violence before killing them in manufactured self-defence. Throughout his questioning, Duterte remained defiant, stating in reference to the drug cartels that “I hate drugs, make no mistake about it. If given another chance, I’ll wipe all of you.”.

It’s pretty clear then, that while Donald Trump is no saint - he’s certainly not alone in this regard and, if anything, is fairly normal by international standards.

TAI Score: Degree 4. Populist leaders are undeniably domestic threats, even if nominated for their position by popular vote. In the case of Turkey and Indonesia, these leaders have very real potential to cause diplomatic incidents and cross-border conflicts. Within their own countries, they can often serve to erode democratic norms and crack down on minority groups before consolidating their positions to rule for far longer than their political systems intend.

Saudi In Transition

SimpleNation was blessed with the opportunity to sit down with a friend of the website and ask her questions about how life in Saudi Arabia has changed over the past decade. Yasmeen “Yas” Alfaris very kindly sat down with me to talk about how life is for young people in the Kingdom today, and what may be next for one of the most important countries in the Middle East.

What’s the biggest misconception about life in KSA? What do you wish was more widely known or understood?

That it’s dangerous or not safe for Western people, who run the risk of being discriminated against by locals, or that women are openly mistreated. Sometimes bloggers/influencers are asked if they’re crazy for going to the Middle East, without realising that Saudi has world-class hospitality, and that Riyadh is as safe as any Western city. 

What has/have been the greatest change(s) to social or cultural life for average people in KSA over the last 10-15 years?

I would say treatment of and opportunities for women has improved a lot. The government is trying to bring society to a more equal standing between the genders, especially in employment and labour. The country is also becoming more relaxed with rules surrounding social interactions between the two - women are allowed to be more casual and friendly if working in a cafe, for example. People are beginning to get used to it too. By contrast, some men in past generations didn’t even know what their wives looked like before their wedding day. There’s still a long way to go but things are trending in a more relaxed direction.

How has life changed for minority groups, such as Shi’a Muslims?

It’s changed a lot. Ten to fifteen years ago, discrimination against Shi’as was rife, and getting a job placement or university spot for Shi’as was very difficult. People are much more tolerant and show curiosity more than anything nowadays, and the labour market is much more meritocracy-based. But Shi’a have always been part of Saudi culture and society, and cases of discrimination are individual acts - not mob violence.

What changes might still be wanted or needed, and what might be coming next (if anything)?

We’re changing so many things - there’s more tourists, women can drive and play sports, but some people are not keeping up with it all. The answer I had in my head for changes “needed” is for the perception of these changes to be more universal nationwide. I recently felt unsafe at a music festival in Saudi because I didn’t know how the locals in that particular region would perceive us for not dressing or acting modestly. Some people, especially older generations, just aren’t used to seeing the diversity in thought and actions.

Do you generally feel that life in Saudi has improved for people over the past 10-15 years? Do others feel the same way?

Absolutely, and the majority definitely feel the same way. Universities are improving, social life is a little more free, leisure opportunities are growing, and public safety is constantly getting better. Job opportunities have improved for the average Saudi too.

Is there anything else that hasn’t been mentioned that you’d like to speak about?

Don’t judge a book by its cover. Come visit Saudi and interact with the locals and see if your opinions are the same afterwards! 

———

Many thanks to Yasmeen Alfaris for her help with this article!

The 38-Minute War

Wars are almost never brief. One of the most popular sayings from the First World War’s initial periods was that the war would be “over by Christmas” before stretching on for four grueling years. Goodness knows what was said at the outbreak of the Hundred Years’ War (which actually lasted for 116 years). To take a more modern example, the Korean War began in 1950 and technically has yet to formally end, while the Syrian civil war will enter its 14th year in March 2025.

But there’s one war (if you can even call it that) that ended in under an hour: The Anglo-Zanzibar War, also known as The 38-Minute War.

The Zanzibar Palace shortly before the outbreak of conflict. Source: HistoricUK

The conflict’s origins exist in the splitting up of colonial Africa between European powers, specifically the 1896 ceding of Tanzania to Germany while Zanzibar remained a protectorate of the British Empire. The sultan of Zanzibar, Hamad bin Thuwaini, was happy to rule on behalf of the British, but died under mysterious circumstances - likely poisoned by his cousin, Khalid bin Bargash, who quickly took control of the throne and declared himself sultan. Viewed by the British as overly independent and dismissive of imperial rule, Khalid was given one hour to surrender and leave the palace. Upon refusing, Khalid amassed a force of 2800 soldiers, civilians, and guards to defend the palace.

The proceeding British artillery bombardment, combined with an incursion by Royal Marines and hired Zanzibari mercenaries, defeated the force of 2800 so quickly that newspapers did not even have time to cover the event, merely reporting that “It took rather less than an hour for Her Majesty’s warships to reduce the palace to ashes. The affair was briskly carried out, and obviously with relish.”. Zanzibar’s only warship, the HHS Glasgow, was a luxury yacht with a single cannon installed, and was quickly sank by the Royal Navy. While 500 people from Khalid’s force were killed, the British suffered only one injury - and zero deaths. Upon victory, the British installed Hamud bin Muhammad, a pro-British Omani, to the throne. Khalid spent the rest of his life in exile throughout various locations, before returning to Mombasa and dying in 1927.

British Royal Marines pose next to a captured cannon. Source: TheArchive

From start to finish, the war lasted less than 45 minutes, and is the shortest war in history.

TAI Score: Degree 0. The war was incredibly decisive and ended in the installation of a pro-British sultan. Today, Zanzibar is a semi-autonomous region in the sovereign nation of Tanzania.

Will Myanmar Collapse?

On August 1st, 2022, SimpleNation published an article asking why democracy has failed in Myanmar so many times.

The short answer is that in a moment of desperation immediately after securing independence from the British, the military (or Tatmadaw) seized the reins of power to quickly put down a series of ethnic rebellions and sort out economic turmoil without needing to slowly deliberate through parliamentary proceedings. The problem is, the Tatmadaw never really gave up power - and for many years, the largest opposition party (the USDP) was openly aligned with the military. So, when their mass unpopularity in several consecutive elections made it easy for the pro-democracy party to erode their power, the military quite simply overthrew them on February 1st, 2021. Myanmar has been embroiled in a horrific civil war ever since.

Whether or not Myanmar can survive as a single country is open to speculation. Throughout the more remote parts of the country, the junta government is rapidly losing control of entire provinces - the two most significant (but by no means only) of which are listed below.

Rakhine state

Despite looking like a professional military, the Arakan Army is an anti-junta rebel force. Source: The Irrawaddy.

Located in the country’s southwest, Rakhine is notorious for the military’s mass killings of ethnic Rohingyas prior to the 2021 coup. Many of these communities have fled to neighbouring Bangladesh where they live in refugee camps around Cox’s Bazar. The Arakan Army, Rakhine’s most powerful rebel group, have secured vast swaths of land, seizing military bases, civilian airports, and entire towns. In fact, the rebel group is so secured in much of the province, they are able to run an entire standardised education system using schools in towns captured from the Tatmadaw. Many in Rakhine state contend, however, that tactics used by the Arakan Army are no less brutal than the Tatmadaw’s, which will cause issues if the now-autonomous region wants to gain international recognition - and work with countries like India and Bangladesh to begin trade, diplomacy, and the repatriation of nearly 1 million refugees.

Kachin state

Ground-level photography shows a China-Myanmar border crossing in Kachin state. Source: Khin Kyaw Nyo

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the largest rebel group in Kachin state to the country’s far north, initially remained neutral following the coup. In fact, it took a full month before fighting resumed, when the Tatmadaw attacked a KIA base. The KIA is far older than the 2021 coup, however, and actually dates back to the 1960s, when the country’s first coup witnessed a situation extremely similar to the one from three years ago.

By the end of 2021, the KIA had become aligned with other rebel groups due to a united desire to see the Tatmadaw overthrown. The KIA has especially drawn attention due to its seizure of military bases in the northern Kachin and Shan states, where rare earth materials are often extracted. This has drawn significant attention from China, with whom Kachin state shares a border, across which a significant amount of trade is conducted.

Will Myanmar collapse?

Probably not. After fighting together against the military, many of these rebel groups have formed agreements, such as the Three Brothers Alliance, and made an entire parallel shadow government that exists in direct opposition to the Tatmadaw. The framework for a new, democratic Myanmar certainly exists internally.

Externally, no other country wants to see Myanmar collapse either. China holds an enormous amount of financial investments in Myanmar, and would not benefit from added chaos. Nor would neighbouring countries, which would face a colossal refugee crisis - which, as previously mentioned, Bangladesh already is. The desire to not see a fractured Myanmar doesn’t really exist anywhere, and doesn’t really have anything pointing to it happening.

TAI Score: Degree 3. The current situation in Myanmar is utterly dreadful, with attacks on civilians occurring almost daily. A collapsed, fractured Myanmar would likely send ripples throughout East and Southeast Asia, with a near-double digit number of countries almost certain to face the direct consequences of such an event. While we should be thankful that this outcome is not on the horizon, we should still hope for peace there soon - though it does not appear to be on the horizon either.

The Hans Island Whiskey War

Border disputes are not particularly rare around the world. In fact, there are approximately 150 actively taking place right now, with some being areas of potential concern (such as the South China Sea), and other being areas of barely-controlled conflict (such as Crimea and eastern Ukraine).

And then, there is the dispute over Hans Island - which was probably the most peaceful and cordial territorial dispute in the world.

Hans Island’s location renders it extremely difficult to reach. Source: Google Earth

Hans Island is not easy to reach, at all. Geolocation tools on Google Earth reveal that it is located extraordinarily far north (about 4500km, or 2800 miles, north of New York City in a straight line) in a strait between Canada and Greenland. The island is only 1.3sq km (0.5mi) in width and is home to nothing more than seabirds, and two bottles of liquor - specifically, Canadian rye whiskey, and Danish schnapps - that were swapped out for one another as both Denmark and Canada vied for control of the island.

The situation began in the 1970s when both countries began to conduct geographical surveys of the region, but neither sides’ maps contained Hans Island - likely due to its complete insignificance. When rumors began to swirl of a Canadian resource company beginning to survey the region (and Hans Island), Denmark’s Minister for Greenland Affairs flew via helicopter to the island to plant a Danish flag and a bottle of schnapps, with a sign reading “Welcome to the Danish Island”.

The Whisky War began when Canada responded with a bottle of rye whiskey, a Canadian flag, and a “Welcome to Canada” sign. This went back and forth for years, with no end in sight for decades.

Photography shows a Danish flag raising in 2002, and a Canadian flag raising in 2005, on Hans Island. Source: The Telegraph

The “war” had a debatable serious side - climate change meant that the island could have been used as a staging ground for offshore drilling and hold strategic purpose after a certain period of time. Furthermore, an unannounced visit by a Canadian minister in 2005 did cause formal complaint from Denmark - though the only outcome was agreeing to have each country notify one another of all future visits by any ministers from either side.

In 2022, a formal resolution to the dispute was finally settled, splitting the island in half from north to south (meaning that Canada now technically shares a land border with Denmark). In addition to resolving the diplomatic conundrum, the agreement also outlined clear maritime rights, and outlined clear rights for indigenous people to use the land.

TAI Score: Degree 0. Even prior to the Whiskey War’s resolution in 2022, the dispute was extremely unlikely to flare into actual hostility given the generally peaceful nature of Canada and Denmark (as well as the phenomenon of the Democratic Peace Theory). While Arctic politics and disputes can hold considerable implications for geopolitical stability, Hans Island was never truly at risk of being at the heart of an international conflagration.

Cargo Cults

An interesting fact about the Buddha is that he was a real person that was confirmed to have existed, the only chief deity in a major system of belief (with Jesus Christ as a debateable contender) to have done so. Siddharta Gautama, his mortal name, was born around 2500 years ago in what is modern day Nepal (or northern India). His life, and path to enlightenment, is fairly well documented in Buddhist history stretching from India to Thailand, China, Korea, and Japan.

John Frum is a less straightforward, and less well-known, character - despite living only about a century ago.

The cargo cult of Vanuatu in the South Pacific is an exceptionally unique system of tradition and belief left over from the Second World War. Its adherents are the descendants of local tribesmen who witnessed a level of wealth and development by US forces stationed on their islands, that they determined they quite simply must be gods who summoned their endless food, wealth, and supplies from thin air by magic. The symbol of the cargo cult believers is a simple red cross - a symbol left behind by the medical staff that gave them life-saving medicine. Many believe that by imitating the servicemen who came to the islands, they can will them into returning with their infrastructure and riches.

The believers on some islands go to extreme lengths to do so.

To explain, the locals believed that rituals performed by the US military - wearing uniforms, marching around, and building aeroplanes - were what summoned the wealth and the cargo. It makes sense, too: not understanding how a radio worked would lead one to similar beliefs. As such, cargo cult members copy US uniforms, march in step with bamboo “rifles” over one shoulder, and have even built “airstrips” with “control towers” filled with “radios” to oversee “planes” - all of which are made entirely out of wood.

So, who’s John Frum?

The short answer is: nobody knows for sure. John Frum is, on the island of Vanuatu, a figurehead of the cargo cults - though local elders insist that he was a white American who urged the locals to stop following the lifestyles largely forced upon them by the British colonial government. They contend that he brought so many material goods with him, that he is “an all-knowing spirit, even more powerful than Jesus" who lives inside their local volcano.

Cargo cults exist across Melanesia - the island archipelago consisting of many nations across the South Pacific - and vary from country to country. And while our world is “shrinking”, as geographers like to describe it, it may be several more generations before the wealth from the Global North reaches these islands, fulfilling the John Frum prophecy.

TAI Score: Degree 0. Although some cargo cults in Papua New Guinea have been associated with cannibalism, this practice is likely far older than the “cult” itself. The belief systems that encourage people to build fake wooden planes and pretend to be air traffic controllers are harmless, and do not present any threat to international society.

French Decolonisation

The decolonisation of Asia and Africa was a long process that began shortly after WWII, with the first phase from 1945-1960 witnessing the independence of approximately 36 countries. During this period, Egypt received independence from Britain, Korea received independence from Japan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo received independence from Belgium (or, more accurately, the Belgian emperor directly as the vast nation was his personal property).

The story of French decolonisation is not quite as clear-cut, however - and one could argue it isn’t as successful as the other former colonial powers have been. Below are three examples of places where France’s influence appears to be slipping rapidly - if there’s any of it left in 2024 at all.

Union members protest in Martinique’s capital, Fort-de-France. Source: France24

Martinique

Martinique is one of those places that doesn’t spring to mind for much more than tourism. In 2022, the Caribbean island received over 660,000 tourists, a number almost double the size of its permanent resident population. It’s recent politics, however, have been unsteady at best: last month, violent protests broke out over the high cost of living (likely driven by wealthy tourists), to which authorities reportedly turned a blind eye. In particular, food prices have remained 40% higher than in mainland France due to import costs, and although the government struck a deal to lower food prices by an average of 20%, protestors say that the move isn’t enough. They are demanding that prices should be no higher in the mainland, and have thus rejected the deal. Issues go beyond food as well - phone and internet prices are also 30% higher than in mainland France. Continued protests have led to the extension of curfews and even the closure of the local airport.

New Caledonia

On the other side of the world in the Pacific Ocean near Australia, the situation in New Caledonia is more of an electoral grievance than an economic one. A proposed amendment in Paris would allow for all people of New Caledonia to participate in elections after ten years of residency, rather than only indigenous Kanak people. The Kanak people feel that this proposal would greatly dilute their political autonomy by adding 25,000 non-indigenous people to the registry, thus vastly threatening the independence movement that many of them support. 13 people have been killed in the violence by emergency police deployed to the country from France, and damage to infrastructure has cost an estimated 2.2 million euros - an issue greatly exacerbated by businesses left in ruin, and a nickel industry already on the decline.

The Sahel

Coup leaders announce the suspension of the constitution and dissolution of state infrastructure on national television in Burkina Faso. Source: Anadolu Ajansi

Perhaps the most famous example of damage to France’s image in its former colonies comes from the Sahel - particularly Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.

In Mali, Operation Barkhane - France’s mission to eradicate Islamist groups from its frontier regions, its largest overseas operation in the world - ended when Assimi Goita, a military officer, staged a coup that demanded the departure of French troops from Mali. The French government, realising that strained diplomacy with the national government combined with battling jihadist groups on their territory (as well as numerous other factors) was too much to handle, announced the end of Barkhane.

Burkina Faso’s story is somewhat more straightforward: after a 2022 coup erupted over France’s perceived inability to secure the country from insurgents, the new military government refused to renew the French licence to conduct special operations on Burkinabe soil, stating that the country wished to defend itself.

In 2023, Niger’s coup sent shockwaves around the world for confirming that the other two incidents in Mali and Burkina Faso were part of a larger, anti-French pattern. The junta proceeded to expel the French ambassador and French troops, before scrapping EU accords that allowed for the training of Niger’s security forces. This particular case greatly alarmed the Western world due to the almost instant bond between the junta and the Russian Wagner Group mercenary firm, which has promised alongside the Russian military to “increase the combat readiness” of Nigerian troops.

TAI Score: Degree 3. The decline of French influence throughout the Global South will lead to increased difficulty for a Western democracy and keystone EU member to operate around the world. Furthermore, the instability left behind by the departure of French political and military assets are often capitalised upon by autocratic actors, such as Russia and China, particularly in the Sahel region. France will need to make concessions to maintain a grip on its unique status throughout the world - or risk shrinking back exclusively to Europe.

What Happened to Somali Pirates?

In 2011, an aid worker named Jessica Buchanan was held captive by pirates in Somalia for three months before being rescued by American Navy SEALs. Her story of being held captive by Somali pirates was, at the time, not unusual for that part of the world - in the first nine months of 2010, nearly half of the recorded 290 piracy attacks worldwide were from Somalia. And then, it seemed, they disappeared for a long time - while 358 attacks were recorded from 2010-2015, only 8 were recorded from 2016-2022. In fact, “Somalia” and “piracy” were colloquially considered mutually inclusive in the early 2010s - enough to create a Tom Hanks film based on a true story about it.

Somali pirates hold rifles towards water cannons seeking to repel them. Source: CommercialRiskOnline

But how did this happen?

The first, and probably most straightforward reason, is that the international response was dramatically increased. The EU and NATO independently ran parallel missions in the Red Sea, as well as the deployment of vessels from India, China, Russia, South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, and Singapore. These countries held UN-approval to use “all necessary means” to repress piracy and maritime robbery.

Somalia itself also initiated efforts to enforce the law at its shoreline. The country re-strategised its national security approach using funds delivered by the UN to deal with the problem in August 2021. Organising a coalition of countries against pirate-linked terror groups, such as Al Shabaab, further helped to stabilise the country against the pirates’ base of support and foundational geography.

Finally, Somalia’s laws and legal “toolbox” to deal with pirates became much clearer, allowing courts to handle the cases with better guidance. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud definitively identified Somalia’s maritime zones, and further preventing illegal foreign fishing from taking place - a trend frequently linked to piracy.

It does, however, appear that piracy may be making a comeback. In April 2024, Somali pirates successfully hijacked and ransomed off a Bangladeshi-flagged vessel for USD $5 million, though this could not be independently verified. Prior to this incident, more than 20 attempted hijackings (a number that rose to 30 by June 2024) had been made since November 2023, an undeniable spike in pirate activity. The diversion of naval forces to deal with strikes from Yemeni rebels and deterioration of Somalian domestic security doctrines as the military gets caught up dealing with separatist groups have meant that there has been little ability to deal with piracy. One thing is for certain though: a resurgence in piracy will further destabilise the Red Sea, and cost the global economy more than USD $7 million this time around.

TAI Score: Degree 3. Piracy itself won’t lead to catastrophic outcomes, but the security risk posed by it is enough to drive shipping insurance premiums significantly higher than normal. The impact on supply chains and military activity is clear - and may cause a near-shoring phenomenon for companies that simply do not want to deal with the threats posed by pirates in any part of the world.

The BRP Sierra Madre

A map depicts the competing claims over the South China Sea. Chinese claims are depicted in red. Source: VOA

The ships that patrol the South China Sea include every type of ship you can imagine, including everything from cargo ships and fishing vessels to destroyers designed to hunt down submarines. And it’s probably not surprising - the area is critical for global trade, with about USD $3.4 trillion passing through each year ($140 billion of which comes from Hong Kong alone), and is a contested maritime area split up between the claims of at least six countries*.

But there’s one ship in the area that truly stands out from the rest.

The Sierra Madre is a Filipino ship that was built in the US in 1944. Left behind by the end of the Second World War, the Sierra Madre was little more than a sentry and transport vessel for decades - until it became the lynchpin of a dispute at the heart of one of East Asia’s security hotspots.

In 1999, the ship was intentionally run aground on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, a region under dispute between Manila and Beijing. Ever since, it has been manned by Filipino soldiers on three month-long shifts, who pass the time by watching films, singing karaoke, and playing basketball on the ship’s helipad while keeping an eye out for patrolling Chinese ships. They even fish in the waters, and sell the dried catch back on short to earn an extra income.

The ship, however, is falling apart - as is expected of a beached vessel from the 1940s, after 25 years exposed to the elements. The situation is made even worse as past attempts to resupply and reinforce the aged ship have been met with harassment and ramming attacks from the Chinese coast guard, including one incident in which a Filipino sailor lost his right thumb after the Chinese coast guard attacked the ship with machetes and hammers. It' makes sense too - if the ship collapses from disintegration, there can’t be a permanent Filipino presence on the Shoal, and China can enjoy an easier time of claiming it.

The Sierra Madre is in a state of deep disrepair from age and exposure. Source: The Guardian

But the occasional Filipino resupply mission succeeds - the most recent one from July of this year managed to reinforce part of the Sierra Madre’s hull. Whether this is a violation of a past agreement set up by past president Rodrigo Duterte to stop doing so, or a response to growing pressure from China, is entirely up for debate. But while the legacy of the Second World War can be felt all around us - in the South China Sea, the Sierra Madre means that we can see it.

TAI Score: Degree 5. The situation in the South China Sea is incredibly tense and there is no real end in sight - in fact, the dispute between Beijing and Manila is arguably the most tense standoff in the region. Things are not helped by the presence of the Sierra Madre - but they are certainly worsened by the aggressive Chinese actions in preventing its prolonged existence. Tensions over the area stretch from Singapore to Washington DC - and have a very real potential to spiral out of control.

*The six countries are China, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Brunei.

Global Security’s Last Frontier on Earth

The northernmost permanently inhabited town in the world is Alert, Canada. There’s not much there to speak of - it’s a weather monitoring station, observatory, and airstrip where temperatures routinely reach -37 degrees Celsius (-35 degrees Fahrenheit) in February. Maybe, then, it’s no wonder that less than 60 people live there at any given time.

An icebreaker, currently one of the only ships capable of travelling through the region, makes its way across the North Pole. Source: NOAA

And yet it serves a critical purpose to the Canadian government beyond monitoring Arctic weather patterns: the establishment of infrastructure there gives Canada sovereignty over part of the Arctic itself, which most of the worlds’ most powerful countries - plus a few others - are competing for. Russia planted its flag on the polar seabed in 2007 (perhaps understandably, given Russia’s enormous Arctic coastline), the US expanded its claims in 2023, and even Denmark has made claims through its autonomous region of Greenland. Even China, which has zero geographic areas bordering the Arctic, has defined itself a “Near-Arctic State” so as to justify significant amounts of investments, despite the term having no legitimacy in international law.

So what makes the Arctic, a place that has almost no population on what little land exists there, so valuable that major powers are beginning to diplomatically clash over it?

Fossil Fuels

If you’ve ever studied watched the news for more than the time it takes for you to finish reading this sentence, you’ll already know that these are one of the “usual suspects” when it comes to conflict. The US Geological Survey’s limited estimates anticipate there to be 90 billion barrels of oil, 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids, and an almost unfathomable 1.67 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. This amounts to about 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30% of its undiscovered natural gas. Although Canada and Denmark have placed banned new oil and gas extraction efforts of any kind (including exploration for new sources), environmental activists have taken Norway to court over concerns that seeking to drill in the Arctic would destabilise local ecosystems. Their concerns are valid - but it may destabilise international politics by an equal amount.

Trade Routes

Climate change is melting polar ice, which leads to both rising sea levels, and the opening of new trade routes throughout the Arctic. This may sound like a good thing, but ownership of Arctic trade routes is as valuable as their existence itself. Russian ownership of the newly established Northern Sea Route gives it legitimacy to use its ships to patrol and defend these trade avenues - and close them off to whomever they decide is no longer welcome to using it. These ports can additionally be quickly converted into military assets - perhaps not as effectively as those located in locations free from ice year-round, but effectively nonetheless.

It’s worth pointing out that the title of this article is very particular - given that if we can’t agree on the Earth’s last frontier in the Arctic because of oil and trade routes, we will certainly struggle to agree on humanity’s next frontier in space.

TAI Score: Degree 3. Competition over the Arctic is already beginning to escalate, before the area is even fully open to fossil fuel excavation and trade route establishment. The competition is additionally taking place between major powers, and goes well beyond a maritime boundary dispute. Careful diplomacy is needed today, to avoid reckless activity tomorrow.

South-South Defence

“South-South Cooperation” is a term that historians have used for decades to refer to mutual reliance among developing countries primarily located in the Global South. It usually manifests in the form of trade - silk being sold to Ghana from Vietnam, rubber from Indonesia being sold to Peru, or rice from Pakistan being sold to Somalia. It’s successful enough that, in many ways, it has actually surpassed the size of North-North trade.

In fact, it has become so successful that it’s moving beyond trade and politics - and moving into international security.

Kenyan forces are leading the coalition to stabilise Haiti. Source: Al Jazeera

When Haiti collapsed earlier this year - February, to be exact - it consisted of gangs seizing control of the country and its infrastructure in a sort of anarchist coup d’etat that began with 4500 prisoners being freed in assaults on prisons. In addition to considerable loss of human life from gang violence, over 350,000 people are displaced because of natural disasters and 5 million people - roughly half of the national population - is facing extreme hunger.

One country is taking the lead to tackle the humanitarian catastrophe, and it’s one that most people would have never guessed: Kenya.

To be clear, Kenyan forces are leading a UN project to stabilise the situation, as opposed to Kenya acting on its own. It’s not the first time Kenya has sent forces outside of its borders either - their forces are currently within UN troops in the DR Congo, fought against the Al Shabaab terror group in Somalia, and even battled the Japanese in Burma during WWII.

Kenya also stands to gain from stabilising Haiti. It serves as a form of diplomatic capital, and trains Kenyan police and military assets. The same is true of countries joining Kenya - namely, Jamaica, the Bahamas, Antigua and Barbuda, Benin, Chad, and Bangladesh. Many more are helping financially, and several African countries are even offering settlement opportunities for Haitians wishing to move there.

As with everything, however, the mission is not without critics. Kenya’s coalition forces will not be able to build a restored political scene in Haiti, and a funding crisis means that the mission may be taken over by the UN directly.

But the willingness for the Global South to solve its own problems is a huge landmark for international politics - because if there are countries in the Global South capable of standing on their own to help each other, then international development and political systems are working. It wasn’t long ago that a phenomenon like this was unthinkable.

TAI Score: Degree 1. As long as affairs are properly handled, South-South defence assistance is no bad thing, particularly if done with the blessing of the UN. But care needs to be taken to ensure that the situation is not worsened during or after these overseas operations, or the optics of foreign intervention may yet again be challenged.