The Grand Renaissance Dam

Egypt’s population density is extremely odd, but probably not surprising. 95% of the 105 million people who live in Egypt reside just a few miles away from the legendary Nile River - which makes sense considering more than 90% of the country is a desert. In every country on Earth, access to water is a foundational building block of society, a fact which holds true since the first human settlement was established approximately 10,000 years ago. Put simply: people cannot live without water.

It’s a fundamental fact that makes the Grand Renaissance Dam so utterly controversial.

Egypt's population is extremely reliant on fresh water from the Nile. Source: CIA World Factbook

The dam is not located in Egypt. It’s not even located near Egypt. In fact, it’s located almost 1,300km away in the Ethiopian town of Bameza, on the other side of Sudan. The dam is hydroelectric, predicted to be the largest dam of any kind in Africa, and will double Ethiopia’s production of electricity without emitting any CO2 into the atmosphere. Dams also boost agricultural output - they provide a stable, reliable source of fresh water that can feed both plants and livestock. This trend would be lifesaving in a place like east Africa where food security is often shaky - or worse.

On the subject of food security, and in direct contrast to the benefits of the dam to Ethiopia above: the exact same dam will likely cripple Egypt.

Given the aforementioned statistics about Egypt’s population density, it’s probably not a surprise that the dam is a source of great concern in Cairo. Cutting the water flow to Egypt and Sudan would dramatically impact both societies. A mere 2% reduction in Egyptian freshwater availability would cause a loss of 200,000 acres of irrigated land.

This has, naturally, affected east African politics. It’s a little tangled, but to put it as simply as possible: Egypt doesn’t like Ethiopia, Ethiopia likes Somaliland*, Somaliland doesn’t like Somalia, Somalia now doesn’t like Ethiopia, and so Somalia has now teamed up with Egypt against Ethiopia. The end product is Ethiopia and Somaliland against Somalia and Egypt. It has manifested as Somaliland giving Ethiopia access to the Red Sea, and Egypt shipping weapons to Somalia.

What happens next isn’t particularly clear. The Grand Renaissance Dam is nearly at full capacity, and began producing electricity in 2022. While negotiations have never really succeeded, the situation that Egypt fears most has not particularly come to pass, and negotiations on technicalities - such as the rate at which the dam’s reservoir is filled, or how policies may change during times of drought - offer room to build trust and find real solutions.

TAI Score: Degree 3. The dispute over rights to the Nile’s fresh water are causing real, tangible strains on relations in north and east Africa, and are manifesting in ways that could quickly spiral out of control. At the same time however, small victories can be won through diplomacy that build trust - and eventually lead to larger victories. The situation will require constant monitoring to ensure a favourable outcome is experienced by all.

*Somaliland and Somalia are, technically, two different places. More info on Somaliland is available here.

Why There’s No Asian NATO

On the 27th of September, Japan’s next Prime Minister was identified. Shigeru Ishiba, who has launched a campaign for the role on four previous occasions, will take over from Fumio Kishida following his resignation after a number of corruption scandals plagued the Liberal Democratic party - which has dominated Japanese politics for decades. Ishiba is Japan’s former defence minister, and has earned a number of enemies from within his own party for proposing ideas like a more balanced defence relationship with the USA, including the creation of an Asian equivalent to NATO.

Japan's next Prime Minister has called for the creation of an Asian NATO in the past. Source: AsiaTimes

Which begs the question: why isn’t there one already?

The original NATO was, according to their site’s history page, founded for three reasons: deterrence against the Soviets, using a North American military presence to prevent fascism in Europe after WWII, and encouraging political integration among European states. The founding members shared a common history and mostly common geography - they were western European countries that had, by the end of the war, cooperated in varying capacities to defeat Germany.

The East Asian story is, by most accounts, entirely different - for three key reasons.

The Mutual Relations Factor

Although regional powers were united against Japan after WWII, those same countries found themselves fighting their own internal battles against communism in a way that European countries did not. Korea was split in half along ideological lines, the nationalist government of China had completely retreated to Taiwan, and communism slowly flourished in Vietnam before completely taking over the country. Only Japan did not face these struggles - because its political reconstruction was directly led by the US. On top of that, these countries still largely harboured animosity towards Japan due to the horrific war crimes it carried out during the conflict that took place barely 20 years prior. Thus, in order to maximise influence over (and act as an intermediary between) these countries, the US created a “hub and spoke” system that guaranteed each country had relations with the US - but not necessarily one another.

The China Factor

A Chinese newspaper claims that the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal is not in Australia's best interest. Source: Global Times

There are already NATO-like structures present in Asia-Pacific. The QUAD alliance consisting of the US, Japan, Australia, and India is an informal maritime security organisation that arose out of the recovery efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. AUKUS (Australia, the UK, and the US) routinely showcases its advancements towards cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, with its flagship achievement to date including the provision of submarines powered by nuclear fuel to the Australian Royal Navy. Both alliances are largely informal, and neither include more than four members. And yet, both the QUAD and AUKUS have been sharply criticised by China - whose influence the two alliances seeks to contain. The creation of an Asian NATO, therefore, would undoubtedly sound alarm bells in Beijing, where the other two alliances are already unpopular. Its creation would serve as a justification for a more assertive Chinese foreign policy in order to combat what it sees as its “containment”.

The Neutrality Factor

Looking beyond China, East and Southeast Asia is full of countries that, quite simply, do not want to get caught up in these types of rivalries. Vietnam, for example, proudly upholds its “Four No’s” foreign policy approach, which prohibits 1) joining any military alliance, 2) taking sides in disputes, 3) having foreign military bases or activity in its borders, and 4) using force in international policy. Indonesia does not currently seek to be bound to any global power or military pact, nor does the official ASEAN bloc. The political will simply isn’t there - even if Japan, South Korea, and the US created a new trilateral agreement - it would be difficult to find a focus point. Put simply: South Korea likely doesn’t have a vested interest in the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute.

TAI Score: Degree 3. The creation of an Asian NATO is likely to create more problems than it solves by creating a sense of panic in China. Even if a mutual guarantee of defence is established in the event of a conflict, it would likely trigger conflict if somewhere like Taiwan - where the pact would be most important - were to join. For countries like Japan, Vietnam, or South Korea, its implementation might ward off outward Chinese aggression, but may cause a rise in internal issues such as cyber attacks and the proliferation of organised crime.

The World’s Most Unique Royalty System

Queen Elizabeth II was, debatably, the most famous woman in modern history. She is more recognisable than Mother Teresa, Malala Yousafzai, and any pop singer or celebrity. The royalty system under which she spent her entire life is a story those of us here in the west can wrap our heads around: she belonged to the Windsor family, was born as a princess and, when her father died in 1952, she began her life as the longest-reigning monarch in British history. This system isn’t unique to Britian, either - it’s common throughout the remaining monarchies of western Europe.

Malaysia’s system is a little less straightforward to those of us less exposed to it. Unless you speak Bahasa, even the title - Yang-di Pertuan Agong - is a lot more to handle than “King” or “Queen”, and literally translates to “He Who is Made Supreme Lord”. For cultural reasons, this figure will be referred to as Sultan throughout the article.

The current Sultan came to the throne in July of this year. Source: Bharian.com

Malaysia’s monarchy operates on a rotational system. Terms last for five years, and are elected from a council of Sultans that take turns as national figurehead (though the position is largely ceremonial, as Malaysia is a constitutional monarchy). The election itself consists of a secret vote with a ballot - not that there’s much point in the ballot’s contents, since it only contains the name of the next monarch whose turn it is - so the vote is more a question of whether or not that particular sultan-to-be is fit for the role.

The system consists of nine sultans, who represent 13 provinces of Malaysia.

The current Sultan - named Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar - came to the throne in July of this past year, and has been expected to play a more active role in national politics. Over the course of his first month alone, the Sultan has conducted a diplomatic trip to China, and ordered a probe into a national scandal involving child abuse.

TAI Score: Degree 0. The royalty system in Malaysia is not a threat to national or international security.

Kurdistan

You’ve probably heard this name in the news before - more than a few times - without knowing where it is. I don’t blame you at all - it’s confusing when the name “Kurdistan” is usually mentioned at the same time as Turkey, Iraq, Iran, or Syria.

It certainly makes one wonder how a country can exist inside of four different countries, and at the same time, not at all.

Kurdistan's geography spans four different countries. Source: Encyclopedia Britannica

Kurds, have always lived in the region stretching from eastern Turkey to northwestern Iran. It has dealt with an enormous number of conquerors and invaders throughout history - including the Greeks, Arabs, Mongols, Turks, Persians, British, and Americans - contributing to the adage that Kurds have “no friends but the mountains” that have given them sanctuary across millennia.

The idea of a defined region named “Kurdistan” was originally established in Iraq in the 1970s, when a deal with Baghdad provided increased autonomy to ethnic Kurds living in the country’s north and northeast. It wasn’t long until they found themselves far less fortunate*: in 1973, Syrian Kurds found themselves weakened and displaced from resource-rich areas that Syrian Arabs wanted access to, Turkish Kurds were forced to scatter when a coup in Turkey turned on them, and the collapse of the aforementioned autonomy agreement in 1974 meant that even Iraqi Arabs no longer tolerated their community. To meet the goal of ethnic cleansing, a genocide known as the Anfal took place, which resulted in horrific atrocities and human rights violations. 

The Iran-Iraq War and years following were perhaps the most brutal years that Kurdistan has faced to date. Caught in the middle of the Iranian Revolution, which the Iraqi government feared would spread to Baghdad and thus launched an invasion of Iran, the Iranian Kurds staged a revolt against the new government - which failed, and ended in the imprisonment, torture, and deaths for thousands of Kurds. All of this came after decades of separate guerrilla campaigns in Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and Syria were waged - and each failed.

Kurds do not have statehood despite being the fourth-largest ethnicity in the Middle East. Source: BBC

After the Gulf War of the 1990s, an alliance of Kurdish political parties formed and held democratic elections, despite having no country to lead. It even has it’s own defined (though unrecognised) borders, foreign policy, parliament, and military (known as the Peshmerga). The Peshmerga were also instrumental in helping to overthrow* Saddam Hussein alongside US forces in 2003. This was not, however, the end of their military history - the rise of the Islamic State ten years ago called the Peshmerga back into action against the terror group with international backing, with the EU, Russia, the US, Canada, UK, and Iran supporting them with military training, money, and hardware. Although ISIS was, and is, not fully defeated, Kurdish efforts cost the terror group 95% of its existing territory - including its “capitals” and largest cities by the end of 2017. Support for the Peshmerga remains ongoing - though the establishment of a Kurdish state seems as far away as ever.

TAI Score: Degree 2. Although an established, internationally recognised Kurdistan is not a threat in itself, and may actually be beneficial to US and European interests in the Middle East, it would prove extremely unpopular in Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey. Historical animosity and complex relations throughout the already tense region would likely lead to increased conflict in a Middle East that is already facing plenty.

*Please be aware that this source contains graphic imagery. Viewer discretion is advised.

The Wars We’ve Forgotten

At the time of writing this article, two wars, and one potential conflict, absolutely dominate the headlines: the Russo-Ukrainian War, the Israel-Hamas War, and the potential war between China and Taiwan. These wars are, arguably, drawing in major amounts of coverage because they are loosely, if not directly, linked to major adversaries of Western powers. Russia is operating in Ukraine, Iran has ties to militia groups in open conflict with Israel, and China would be actively engaged in a potential invasion of Taiwan.

You don’t need to read SimpleNation to know, however, that the past 15 years have witnessed plenty of other conflicts that, although they continue to this day, are still raging on to varying degrees. They aren’t obscure ones, either - they certainly made headlines when they began, but it seems the average person has forgotten about them.

A dance instructor films her routine while Tatmadaw vehicles descend on Myanmar's Parliament in the background. Source: The Guardian

Myanmar

The military in Myanmar, or Tatmadaw as it’s known locally, has a long history of fading from, then returning to, power in Burmese politics. In February of 2021 - well within recent memory - the Tatmadaw declared the results of pro-democracy elections invalid, arrested the new parliament mere hours before they convened, and installed a one-year “state of emergency” in the country. The response from the Burmese public was massive: tens of thousands of people protested, enough to generate the creation of a parallel government that has declared war on the military junta. Several dozen armed groups with varying sizes, objectives, and capabilities now exist in open defiance of the Tatmadaw.

To further complicate matters, China appears to be supporting a number of groups - including both the Tatmadaw and several resistance factions. Although there is merely speculation at this time, it would appear that assistance is given to whoever happens to control the region where Chinese interests and assets lay, in order to maximise benefit to China.

Syria

Emerging out of the chaos of the Arab Spring from the early 2010s, the Syrian civil war is now in its 13th year - a considerable length for a modern conflict. Prior to the outbreak of warfare, many Syrians faced high unemployment, open corruption, and a lack of civil liberties. Protests broke out after 15 boys, inspired by acts in other countries such as Tunisia and Egypt, were arrested and tortured for spray-painting an anti-government slogan on a school wall. The Syrian army responded with extreme force, cracking down on protests and arresting hundreds of people in the first four months of 2011 alone.

A year later, the situation had spiraled into a civil war and complete breakdown of the state, after which Islamist fighters took advantage of the chaos to establish territory. So many competing interests began to take shape that at least five foreign militaries (the USA, the UK, Iran, Russia, and Turkey) began operations in Syria - some more directly than others. This is further excluding the different armed resistance groups also operating in Syria against government forces and terror groups.

Sudan

Thousands of people flee conflict in Sudan every day. Source: UNHCR

The situation in Sudan is perhaps the most serious conflict on this list. It’s certainly the youngest, having emerged as recently as April 2023.

Fighting originally broke out in Khartoum between rival military factions: the main branch of the Sudanese Armed Forces, and a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces. The breakdown in the relationship came from an attempted merger of the RSF into the SAF as a mainstream arm of the military - but disagreements over leadership of the new force continually intensified until violence emerged in Sudan.

The SAF was not even meant to lead the government at the time: an unpopular, ineffective prime minister was unable to rule without force, leaving him at the mercy of security services and, eventually, forcing a resignation - placing power into the hands of the SAF. Since the fighting began, not one attempted ceasefire agreement - usually drafted by the US or Saudi Arabia - has been upheld.

The humanitarian fallout from Sudan is staggering: 12 million people have been displaced, and the WHO is reporting that starvation has effectively become a nationwide problem.

The World’s Other North Korea

The countries that have emerged out of the former communist world are an utter tapestry of results. Poland and the Baltic states are an economic success story that has almost fully integrated with western European politics. Ukraine has struggled - and continues to struggle - with a departure from Russian influence. Belarus, on the other hand, has gone so far as to form a union government with Moscow and responded with force to protests that contested the country’s election in late 2020. Moving towards Central Asia, this situation was (more so in outcome than in origin) not too different from when Russia sent troops to Kazakhstan to suppress riots there in late 2021. Lastly, Kyrgyzstan usually ranks somewhere just below the global average for democracy scores - which may explain why there seems to be a state of constant revolts there.

Turkmenbashy's statue towers over the capital city of Ashgabat. Source: Flickr

But there’s one country existing in a truly strange state of affairs that almost has to be seen to be believed.

There’s a very high chance you’ve never been to Turkmenistan (please reach out to me if you have). As a British citizen, simply acquiring a visa takes a minimum of two months, and requires a letter of invitation, registration with the State Migration Service in the capital city of Ashgabat, and paying a tourism tax of USD $14 upfront (plus $2 per day). All of which is probably the least unusual aspect of Turkmenistan itself.

On a German list of countries ranked by democratic values, Turkmenistan scores 164th out of 176 countries - placing it below Venezuela, Cuba, Libya, Belarus, and Iran. It occupies a space only 11 ranks higher than North Korea but, much like North Korea, is governed by a cult figure holding a god-like status in the national myth. Turkmenbashi - whose name was Saparmurat Niyazov - is so openly revered in Turkmenistan that a golden statue of him was built, and rotates to constantly face the sun. It’s not Ashgabat’s only monument either - other city landmarks include another gold statue of the current president atop a horse, the world’s largest indoor Ferris wheel, and even a statue of the book that serves as the national constitution and writings of Turkmenbashi. Ashgabat boasts 543 buildings made of solid marble (the highest concentration in the world), cars are mandated to be white in colour, and dogs are outright banned from the city. Outside of Ashgabat is the Darvaza gas crater, a perpetually-burning pit produced by a Soviet mining accident that leaks natural gas - the country’s main export.

The Darvaza gas crater has been burning for over fifty years. Source: Smithsonian Magazine

You probably won’t be surprised, then, to hear that that the human rights situation in Turkmenistan is dire. Authorities tightly control the spread of information, women and girls face considerable discrimination (even in the form of a dress code to “preserve national heritage”), and even the smallest of protests have led to civil detention. An extensive list of human rights abuses from Turkmenistan is also available on the US State Department’s website.

Interested in visiting? Book a trip to Turkmenistan today!

TAI Score: Degree 2. Turkmenistan’s lack of democratic values or civil liberties is certainly cause for concern. While the country rarely - if ever - projects power beyond its borders, issues with drug and human trafficking, as well as financial crimes, make the country rife with business risk. Normalised relations with most countries allow for state-to-state engagement, but the opacity of politics in Turkmenistan make the approach difficult beyond the surface level for most countries.

The Deadliest Conflict You’ve Never Heard Of

Africa is frequently, and regrettably, overlooked and misunderstood by analysts. Despite a population of 1.5 billion in 2024 - more populous than any single country - the Norwegian Refugee Council details how the world’s ten most neglected crises are all in Africa, research and development from Africa is frequently overlooked and under-influential, and approximately five times as many people have been displaced in Sudan than in Palestine.

Congolese soldiers carry rifles while wearing natural camouflage. Source: The Egmont Institute

This trend is even more acute when we examine the Second Congo War - which killed nearly six million people in just ten years less than twenty years ago. In fact, this conflict was so brutal, it remains the deadliest conflict in the world since the Second World War - and most people have never heard of it.

Sadly, the Great War of Africa’s origins are no more peaceful than the war itself was. Emerging from the legacy of the Rwandan Genocide, Hutu refugees in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) formed extremist militias - which found themselves at odds against Congolese Tutsis backed by Rwanda.

If you’re already finding it confusing, I don’t blame you. To put it extremely briefly: Tutsis in Rwanda backed Tutsis in the eastern DRC to fight against Hutus that had fled from - and become violent against - them.

At the same time, Congolese dissatisfied with the corrupt leadership of President Mobutu formed rebel groups to have him overthrown. Mobutu, unpopular in Rwanda as well, quickly found himself fighting not only his own people - but the Rwandans as well, assisted by Mobutu’s chief opponent, Laurent Kabila. This became known as the First Congo War, and it not only included Uganda, Angola, and Burundi, but also concluded with Mobutu’s replacement by Kabila as president of the DRC.

An estimated 7 million people have been displaced by conflict in the eastern DRC. Source: AfricaNews

The relationship between Kabila and Rwanda, who supported him, was short-lived however. In 1998, Kabila found himself unhappy with the eastern DRC remaining unstable and, in a shocking turnaround, he ordered all foreign troops to leave the DRC. Only one year after the First Congo War ended, the Second Congo War began. The conflict truly flared when Rwanda and Uganda, as well as the rebels they backed, jointly invaded the DRC again - only to find themselves fighting Congolese, Angolan, Namibian, and Zimbabwean forces. The death toll of this conflict is staggering: the International Rescue Committee estimates that from 1998 - 2004, the period when the most serious fighting took place, almost 4 million people died in just six years.

What’s worse is that this issue has not gone away: tens of thousands of people continue to be directly affected, as recently as February of this year. Furthermore, Rwanda and Uganda continue to back rebels, such as the M23 resistance group, in the eastern DRC, and although diplomacy continues to be pursued, a lasting solution has yet to be found.

TAI Score: Degree 4. Regional stability must be monitored and pursued to guarantee that a catastrophe like the First and Second Congo Wars are not repeated. Even without a widespread outbreak of warfare, the cost of instability in the region is extremely high. This places strain on supply chains for raw materials and, far more importantly, puts human security at great risk. We must not allow Africa’s issues to continue going unnoticed, lest those of us in the West be caught by surprise.

Four Places You’ll (Probably) Never Visit

There’s a good deal of fun wondering what goes on in places that cause us all to put on our metaphorical aluminium-foil hats. Are there really signs of extraterrestrial life in Area 51, and if not, then why do over half of American adults believe that there’s more than the government lets on regarding UFOs - and why has this belief been in place for seven decades now?

And what other places are there like it around the world, where visitors are strictly forbidden?

North Sentinel Island

Located in the Indian Ocean, this island gained a state of notoriety in 2018 when an American missionary attempted to convert the local people, who killed him on sight. It may seem extreme, but it isn’t the first time this has happened. It isn’t that the locals need a lesson in hospitality - the tribesmen there, about which we know extremely little, are incredibly hostile to outside forces. It’s understood that while they may have an understanding of basic archery, it’s believed that agricultural practice still has not made its way to the island - despite arising in ancient civilisations as long as 12,000 years ago.

The first recorded trip to the island took place in 1867 under the watch of Jeremiah Homfray, a British colonial officer following the trail of escaped convicts. Warnings from local guides convinced him not to land, but later expeditions - specifically those of Maurice Vidal Portman - kidnapped several Sentinelese natives, causing them to quickly become ill and perish. This remains the leading explanation for the tribe’s open hostility. Madhumala Chattopadhyay remains arguably the most successful anthropologist to have established contact with them, given her efforts to send them coconuts in person without incident.

North Sentinel Island remains, to this day, off-limits to visitors and its waters are routinely patrolled by the Indian navy. SimpleNation wrote an article about North Sentinel Island in 2022 - click here for more details!

Pluto’s Gate

The architecture of Pluto's Gate show a number of tunnels leading to subterranean chambers. Source: Atlas Obscura

Also known as the Gate to the Underworld, or the Gate to Hell, Pluto’s Gate exists in modern-day Turkey. It consists of a “viewing area” or with a statue of Hades, the Greek god of the underworld, with subterranean chambers that grant the site its spot on this list. Built over two thousand years ago by Greco-Romans, its existence baffled locals for one particular reason: animals that entered the gate would drop dead after mere seconds.

Strabo, a Greek philosopher who lived from 64 BC to about 24 AD, conducted this test by releasing sparrows into the tunnel, only to observe them “[meet] their instant death…they immediately breathed their last and fell.”. Even more bizarrely, priests performing sacrifices to Pluto at the site remained completely unharmed. Thus, it’s no surprise that residents of the area at the time believed the area to house a portal to Hell.

Modern scientists, however, have determined the cause for this extremely unusual phenomenon: by bringing a gas analyser into the ruins, volcanologists determined the presence extremely high levels of carbon dioxide in the air - which would have originated from the same source as nearby hot springs, and condense into liquid as temperatures cooled at night. Further notes from Strabo, which seem to indicate the aforementioned priests were holding their breath, further support this theory. While tourists can visit the site, entry into the tunnel is forbidden.

Room 39

North Korea is, at the best of times, and extremely opaque society. The entry requirements for British citizens are extensive given the country’s status as the “Hermit Kingdom” - the Foreign Office warns against bringing anything with GPS technology, books in Korean, anything with religious connotations or digital media capabilities, and anything that could be deemed “anti-government” by North Korean authorities. Even while on tour, photography and filming is strictly controlled by your non-optional tour guide.

Room 39, however, is probably the most secretive location in this already secretive country.

Located on the third floor of the the Korean Worker’s Party (KWP)’s headquarters in Pyongyang, it is believed to be the personal treasury for the ruling elite of the KWP that oversees almost every aspect of life in North Korea. This enables them to side-step sanctions designed to prevent them from acquiring foreign currency. The finances within are understood by foreign intelligence officials as being spent on lavish gifts for party loyalty - including cars, cognac, and more.

It is not likely that the finances within come from sales taxes places on its citizens - rather, one defector has claimed that the money within comes from transnational crime, including narcotics trafficking, gem exports, and cyber attacks. The Financial Times has an article outlining in greater detail the network of shadowy business transactions linked to Room 39 and North Korea’s never-ending quest for foreign cash.

Ni’ihau

Ni'ihau's cliffs rise high above the Pacific Ocean. Source: TravelToParadise

Nearly two million people visited Hawaii in 2023, a figure stretching 300,000 people more than the island’s resident population during the same year. While the island archipelago has 137 islands, eight of them are considered major, and have the names most familiar to the average person: Maui, Oahu, and Hawaii Island itself. The smallest of these eight islands, Ni’ihau, is something of an anomaly.

Ni’ihau is the only place on Earth where Hawaiian is the only official language. There are no paved roads, no running water, no telephone or internet connections, and all electricity is generated by solar panels. In order to create cultural preservation for native Hawaiians, the Robinson family from New Zealand purchased the island in 1864 before prohibiting access to anyone who was and is not a native Hawaiian, member of the family, or a directly invited guest. Ni’ihau’s 70 full-time residents survive by hunting, fishing, and collecting rainwater.

While aerial tours of the island can take place by helicopter, landing is forbidden on Ni’ihau, and interactions between visitors and native Hawaiians is forbidden. The reason for this level of prohibition goes beyond cultural preservation - the island also holds religious connotations: Pele, the Hawaiian goddess of volcanoes who created the island chain, is believed to have made her first home on the island of Ni’ihau.

The Western World’s Most Sensitive Ladder

The Church of the Holy Sepulchre is arguably the most sacred site in Christianity. Located in Jerusalem, it is believed to be the site of Jesus Christ’s crucifixion and tomb, and has served as a site for pilgrims for approximately 1500 years. It is further understood to be jointly governed by six different Christian denominations, while officially existing in the Jewish state of Israel, leading to a somewhat tangled series of “ownerships”.

This is where our story begins today.

The ladder sits above street level, providing access to a small balcony. Source: University of Notre Dame

The early days of Christianity witnessed extreme, and often violent, splintering into different sects, including Greek, Armenian, Ethiopian, and other separate groups* seeking control of the Holy Land. This continued for centuries even after the withdrawal of the Romans, until Islamic Arabian and Ottoman forces occupied the area beginning in the 7th century, suppressing all religious minorities.

The Ottomans did, however, issue a decree regarding the factions rallying for control over the church, passing a “Status Quo” law in the 1750s which ordered that no changes could be made to the site without the explicit permission of all six denominations expressing approval. This law extends not only to the building and its land, but also candles, chairs, furniture, windows, and anything inside or outside.

This includes the ladder.

The ladder itself is believed to have been placed there no later than the 1720s - its first mention appears in an engraving and although little else is known about its origins, we do know that it falls under the status quo arrangement as part of the Church. Rumors about the ladder include that it was left behind by a stone mason whose name and status have been lost to time. Other postulate that it was used when the Ottomans restricted movement in and out of the church so the monks could receive sunlight, or that it was used to grow vegetables on a balcony.

And yet, despite the ladder’s “sacred” status as a part of the church, it has been moved before - once to allow renovation crews to continue work on the bell tower, and another time after a thief stole it, before returning it after learning that its disappearance was creating conflict between the Catholic and Greek Orthodox churches.

This may sound like a joke - but fights have indeed broken out over the contents of the church being altered without the aforementioned six-way permission. As recently as 2008, a Coptic monk - of which there is always at least one present on a small section of the roof in dispute with the Ethiopian church - shifted his chair 20 centimeters to the side in order to sit in the shade.

The resulting clash resulted in the hospitalisation of eleven people.

TAI Score: Degree 1. It is highly unlikely that the contents of a church will cause any significant geopolitical threat. Regardless, given the violence that has potential to break out over such minor alterations means that individuals visiting the site should be aware - particularly considering the already high level of religious and sectarian violence that exists in the Middle East.

*The full list of denominations is the Greek, Armenian, Ethiopian, Syriac, Coptic Egyptian, and Roman Catholic churches.

Limitless, Until It Isn’t

Two years ago, during the Winter Olympics, China’s Xi and Russia’s Putin declared a “no limits partnership” with manifestoes designed to counter American influence throughout the world.

A 1963 cartoon from the Daily Mail depicts the Sino-Soviet split. Source: HistoryAtelier

It’s not the first time this has happened - unsurprisingly, during the Cold War, Mao’s China and Stalin’s USSR formed a positive relationship less than a year after the communists’ victory in the Chinese Civil War, with Mao declaring that China would “lean to one side, ally with the Soviet Union, and form an international united front.” . Such a united front led to the Korean War, as a conflict, expanding far beyond the Korean Peninsula, pulling in forces from all over the globe on both sides. This trend existed throughout the early years of the Cold War, until Moscow and Beijing began to drift apart - conflicts of national strategic interest and debates over ideology (to name but a few) include reasons for what a casual observer may consider to otherwise be a natural alliance between Maoist China and the USSR.

It might not be the last time this falling out happens, either. Experts are already wondering just how limitless the “limitless partnership” announced in 2022 really is.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in the late 1980s and early 1990s, Russian geopolitical potential greatly withdrew. It had lost direct influence in eastern Europe and central Asia, its GDP was shrinking by a staggering 14% in 1992, and Russia itself had nearly witnessed a new civil war in 1993. Around the same time, the China had entered a series of almost perfectly opposite trends: the GDP was growing by 14%, the political situation remained stable even after the Tiananmen Square Incident, and its borders remained unchanged since 1949. Nevertheless, China needed (and indeed, still needs) oil and natural gas - thus, since Russia had fuel but needed money - and China had money but needed fuel, a Sino-Russian trade relationship was natural. As of 2025, the Power of Siberia pipeline is expected to export approximately 38 billion cubic meters (BCM) of liquified natural gas to China, its peak capacity. At the same time, the recently-announced Power of Siberia 2 pipeline would expand Russian fuel exports to China by a further 50 BCM.

However, the project has hit a number of obstacles. Mongolia (through which the pipeline runs) cancelling its participation, combined with China’s lack of commitment to the Power of Siberia 2 project, demands for low prices, and significant progress in renewable energy production have all contributed to a stalling of the pipeline’s implementation. Even if the project were to be finished and in operation, however, the 88 BCM of gas exported to China would fall far short of the 337.5 BCM of natural gas imported by the EU from Russia in 2021 alone.

Lastly, indirect competition between Russia and China lingers in a number of key locations - especially central Asia, given its geographic location as neighbours to both Russia and China. The Eurasian Research Institute (using data from SIPRI, the international arms export tracker) has announced that the defence economics trend “is most clearly visible in the decline of Russian economic dominance in Central Asia in favour of China, as Russian trade that in the 1990s amounted to USD $110 billion and made up 80% of the region’s trade dropped now to 18.6 billion USD, which is well behind that of China”. This will be especially true in areas outside of weapons exports, as China’s Belt and Road Initiative places a heavy emphasis on central Asian nations.

The story is not particularly different in the Arctic - where the presence of Russian influence is both powerful and entirely justifiable due to geography, although the country sees it as a “privileged sphere of influence”. But as the Arctic becomes globalised due to new, shorter trade routes opening up as a result of climate change, and the extraction of enormous oil and gas deposits there, the area has real risk of becoming a point of tension between fuel-dependent Russia and export-dependent China.

A map depicting but a few areas where Sino-Russian competition can be found. Blank map originally retrieved from TES.com

Turning towards foreign policy, one of the previously mentioned reasons for the collapse in the Sino-Soviet relationship of the Cold War was that of national strategic interest. More specifically, this refers to a lack of consensus over which of the two communist giants - China, or the Soviet Union - would take on the responsibility of leading both the communist world and spreading revolutions in the Global South.

As far as 21st century foreign policy goes, we are absolutely watching history repeat itself: in addition to aforementioned competition over Central Asia and the Arctic, Russian mercenaries guarantee security in northern Africa while local countries like Mali join the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, Russia has grown closer to Hamas in Gaza while China builds networks aiming to strengthen Palestinian governance, and - perhaps most significantly - China was noticeably quiet and reportedly displeased when Russia deepened its ties with North Korea. Serbian ties with Beijing and Moscow have both been considerably strengthened in recent years, while the same pattern has also emerged in Pakistan (who recently signed on for closer defence ties with Russia, and economic ties with China) and Venezuela (where both Russia and China have congratulated Maduro on his questionable election victory).

These examples are to name but a few countries - there are plenty more examples of Sino-Russian competition to select from as the Global South plays an increasingly critical role in international relations. And as trade and foreign policy become increasingly required in an increasingly complex world, we may find ourselves facing a new Sino-Russian Split in the 21st century.

TAI Score: Degree 3. While a Sino-Russian partnership is not an enormous threat in itself, the challenges posed to the US-led world order are causing points of tension for major powers in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and many areas across Asia. This score may be upgraded, however, in the wake of a Sino-Russian diplomatic falling out, given the unpredictable nature of the outcome.

The Unification Church

Japan is, by nearly every metric, routinely ranked as one of the safest countries in the world.

Despite a population of 125 million, the country reported a mere 289 homicides in 2022 - for comparison, the UK reported 581 - approximately twice as many incidents, despite approximately one-half the population size. Even Canada, a country whose population is comparable to just Japan’s capital city, reported nearly 900 homicides. It’s no wonder, then, that Japan is ranked as the 9th safest country on Earth - despite far outsizing every other country on the top 15 list in terms of population.

Sun Myung-Moon, founder of the Unification Church. Source: Foreign Policy

It’s also no wonder, then, that the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, enormously shocked the entire world. Both Japanese and foreign observers quickly began asking questions: how did Japanese security forces allow this to happen? How did the killer even get ahold of a firearm? Who is he, and what is his motive? The answer to that final question is the focus of today’s article - and it isn’t, by any means, a straightforward one. It begins not in Japan - but neighbouring South Korea.

In 1954, a man by the name of Sun Myung Moon - an avowed evangelical Christian and passionate opponent of communism - founded the Unification Church: an organisation which he led after claiming God had spoken to and ordered him to create a Kingdom of Heaven on Earth. Since its founding, the Church has been accused of brainwashing members, holding non-mainstream views on issues such as same-sex marriage or reproductive rights, and operating as a cult to enrich its top leadership. It still exists today - holding mass wedding ceremonies and even running the Washington Times newspaper, which is not believed to be a credible source of journalistic information (nor is it to be confused with the American mainstream Washington Post and New York Times newspapers).

But how did a Korean neo-Christian cult become linked to the assassination of a Japanese former Prime Minister?

Fumio Kishida, the current Prime Minister of Japan, speaks at Abe's funeral ceremony. Source: Prime Minister's Office of Japan

As implied given its ownership of an American newspaper, the Church’s presence is not limited to South Korea, and has a following in Japan of approximately 100,000 individuals (though this is a figure according to a spokesperson from the Church, and may be higher in reality). Tetsuya Yamagami - Abe’s assassin - believed that his family had been ruined by his mother’s donation to the Church that pushed them into deep poverty. Abe’s party, the Liberal Democrats that have dominated Japanese politics since the mid-1950s, does have known ties to the Unification Church.

Yamagami, therefore, sought revenge on a Prime Minister with links to the cult for pushing his family into a desperate financial situation.

Aside from the obvious - the presence of a cult in a major power’s mainstream politics - the situation shows another unusual trend. East Asian security is rarely defined by non-state actors. The Kuril Islands, nuclear weaponry proliferation, Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, and South China Sea dispute all consist of exclusively country-based actors, and other parties rarely - if ever - become introduced. The situation with the Unification Church, however, directly defies this trend, creating an uncommon occurrence with a barely predictable outcome.

TAI Score: Degree 2. It’s unlikely that the Unification Church will lead to heightened geopolitical risk in the Asia-Pacific region or beyond. But with outcomes such as the assassination of Shinzo Abe, its presence and operations should be monitored by both local and overseas actors for issues surrounding business risk, particularly given Moon’s incarceration in the United States for tax evasion. While political risk is minimised, business risk may not necessarily be absent.

How To Be a Spy From Your Couch

Did you know that it’s possible to live out your childhood dream of being a Hollywood-style intelligence expert from the comfort of your home, local library, or a coffee shop - without having to put your life on the line in a 007-style gunfight?

Open-source intelligence, colloquially known as OSINT, might sound complex and clandestine in nature - but it’s probably one of the easiest skills to learn, and you’ve probably used it before without even recognising it. Officially defined as “intelligence produced by collecting and analyzing public information with the purpose of answering a specific intelligence question”, a more SimpleNation-esque description of the skill would be “using readily-available resources online to find an answer to something - even if it isn’t immediately obvious.”.

You might be thinking “That’s easy - I use Google all the time!”. But OSINT can be a skill used by certified professionals - ranging from journalists to national security experts - deploying a whole toolbox of methodologies. Thankfully, however, you don’t need to work for the SIS or CIA to get involved.

Wind, weather, and a webcam feed from earlier this week is displayed for Kursk, where Ukrainian forces are currently operating inside Russia. Source: Windy.com

Since OSINT relies on readily-available tools, platforms like Google Earth and Twitter can, in certain contexts, become tools for gathering intelligence. Bellingcat, a leading investigations firm based in the Netherlands, has a wealth of case studies that include using tools like social media, satellite imagery, and declassified court documents to gather information on critical topics - up to and including the tracking of ingredients used to create an illegal chemical weapon. You can even use sites like Windy.com to track live weather updates and tap into street cameras around the world - legally.

When airstrikes in Yemen against Houthi rebels took place, I used OSINT techniques to get ahead of the news cycle and find out exactly where, when, and against which targets the US Air Force and British RAF had launched attacks. The file is available upon request*, and was created in less than an hour using only Twitter and a media bias checker to find out which information could be trusted - and which could not. I also used Google Earth in my Master’s degree dissertation - measuring the lengths of airport runways that were officially built for infrastructure investment, but I suspected were secretly built for the additional purpose of carrying out military exercises.

So, what separates OSINT from simply using Google, flight and maritime trackers, and social media?

On the surface, the use of open-source information may be the same, but the difference between information and intelligence comes from intent, and the proper cataloguing of data to fulfill that intent. The correct processing of information to answer questions like who, what, when, where, why, and how to provide a comprehensive response to an issue is what separates OSINT from simply using the search bar on Instagram. In other words, information is collected, intelligence is produced - thus making the information actionable.

Want to get started learning more about OSINT? The Basel Institute (EU-based) and Kapsuun Group (USA-based) provide excellent, interactive, and free-of-charge courses in OSINT that each take approximately two hours to complete and provide digital certificates. Their links, as well as a toolbox for OSINT-related search framework, are provided below.

Basel Institute course

Kapsuun Group course

OSINT Toolbox and OSINT Essentials

TAI Score: Degree 0. OSINT itself is not a threat to international security, is legal for private citizens to learn and use, and - if anything - can prevent conflict if used properly by the right sources.

*Please reach out to me at btait.simplenation@gmail.com for access to the file.